Topic
Area:
Population
Geographic
Area: India
Focal
Question: Do
declines in the rate of childhood mortality lead to decreased fertility?
Source:
(1) Atella, Vincenzo; Rosati, Furio Camillo;
“Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility:
A test using indian microdata.” Journal of Population Economics, 2000, Vol. 13 Issue 2,
p263-278.
Reviewer: Neil Crimins ’02
Review:
Atella
and Rosati with the help of the Human Development of India Survey data
attempted to understand the impact of childhood mortality on the rate of fertility. In 1994, the survey was conducted in
two stages sampling 34,398 households in 1,765 villages located in 195 districts
in 16 states. The first survey
instrument was designed for adult males with the intention of determining the
income and economic factors affecting a household, while the second survey
determined rates of literacy, education, health, morbidity, nutrition, and
demographic parameters for adult females members of the household. With this information, the authors
performed a regression analysis to show how many of the characteristics listed
above were related to the number of births that a family would have (269).
Theory
provides some suggestions about the expected nature of this relationship. The
reality of childhood mortality impacts parent’s decision making in the
following way: first, the average number of children a family expects to
survive, and second, the risk of being a family that looses a child are both unknown. Over the course of one’s lifetime
he or she will hopefully live over three stages of life. The middle stage of life is the income
accumulating stage where an individual is independent. The first and last stages of life are
considered the periods when one is not working and is therefore dependent on
the resources they have accumulated or have access too. The middle stage of life is also when
fertility choices are made. Part
of the finances for the first and later stages of life come from the middle
stage in what are called intergenerational transfers. The differences between the first and last stages of course
rests in the notion that over the course of one’s life she has the option
during her working years to put money away in the hopes that it will be there
when she needs it, while children do not come with a nest egg attached. From
the perspective of the middle stage there is both a recoverable cost in the
form of the hope that when they are old that their children will take care of
them, and an unrecoverable cost in the form of the nurturing, education, and invested
parental time that hopefully provide an economic reward later in life that is
unique to the first stage.
Therefore, for parents children are one way of investing in your
retirement, along with other methods like putting the money you would not have
spent on that child in a bank where it may earn a rate of return. Unfortunately, many in the developed
world do not have access to institutions that will pay them a rate of return or
even institutions that will simply hold onto one’s assets for the future. Therefore, the options that exist for
middle stage individuals are limited to ensure that they will be taken care of
in old age (264-66).
A
child as the sole option for ensuring one’s third stage of life is taken
care of comes with an assessable risk of defaulting on his/her responsibility
when the child reaches the middle stage of life and is income earning itself. In the absence of risk parents would
have one child and give that child all of the resources it required, but with
risk comes the necessity for more children as a means of spreading out the risk
of being left without a safety net in old age. Combine this risk of default
with the risk of premature death before a child reach’s the middle income
earning stage and you leave parents faced with an even greater prospect of poverty
in their final years. Given that mortality is unknown, and the risk of default
is unknown, it is advantageous for a parent in order to maximize their lifetime
utility to spread their available resources over a larger pool of
children. In India where there is
a high risk of mortality relative to a developed nation like France, the
aversion that middle staged individuals in India have to risk may be low or
high. For example, if an
individual has a low degree of risk aversion they will have fewer children
(i.e. an income like effect), and as a result there will be more resources
allocated per child. The secondary
effect or what might be viewed as a substitution effect will result in
increased willingness to transfer part of his income to old age. Both of these effects are part of the
notion that not only is the mean value of what you will consume in old age
important, but also the variance of how much you will consume in old age. Furthermore, given that the poor of
India have little access to banks and other financial markets for reserving
funds for old age consumption, the increase in the variance results in
increases in the number of children parents will decide to have. By increasing the variance of the survival
rate, parents are less likely to put all of their eggs in one basket, but
rather spread out their available resources to many children. Thus there exists a cyclical effect that
occurs when parents have no other option than to have children to ensure during
old age they will be financially comfortable (267-68).
With
the theory in mind, the authors returned to the empirical evidence to see what
influence mortality really does have on fertility and how that influence
compares to the influence of other factors like income, literacy, education
etc.. The econometric estimates were divided into two parts: first, parents who
already have children must decide how many more children, or what size will
their family ultimately be. In
this group, the results for women considered to be in their childbearing years
(between the ages of 18-49) found that mortality had no effect on the expected
number of children. While the education of the husband, had no significant
influence on fertility choices, the education of the wife had a significant
negative effect. The more educated a wife is the fewer children she is expected
to have. Religion also played a
role. Muslims and other religions
tended to show higher rates of fertility than Hindus with Christians having the
lowest rate of fertility (275).
The
effects of income and wage rates on the number of children were difficult to
interpret and therefore required a deeper analysis. The authors used the size of cultivated land and a measure
of poverty that classifies households into four groups as proxies for the
income effects. The results show
that increased land size has a positive effect, meaning the more land you have
the more children you will have.
But underneath is the reality that reverse correlation might skew the
results since more children may be necessary to farm larger plots of land. The four groups classified for the
poverty measurement showed that increased income leads to increased number of
children until you get to very high levels of income where the elasticity of
demand for children becomes very small and subsequently the variations in the
number of children are very small.
This type of relationship suggests that a nonlinear trend may
exist. And finally, the major
question the authors seek to ask is whether the survival rate has a negative
effect on the number of children a family has while controlling for the prior
characteristics. The results show
that in the case of both the mean and variance of the survival rate at the
village level there is a negative effect, which is consistent with what would
have been expected. When the average survival rate declines, the average number
of children a family will have declines.
Furthermore, the spread, or the probability of having a family with a
large number of children also declines, leaving society with a greater chance of having families with a
reasonable amount of children. As
mentioned earlier, parent’s decisions to have children where linked to
how many children they already had.
The second part of the model separates the two, and looks simply at how
children parents will have regardless of how many children they already have. As a result the age coefficients of the
wife and husband are larger, Christians are more likely to have children, and
increased education for the husband positively influences the decision to have
children. Finally, the mean and
the variance are significant with a negative sign, which means that an increase
in the variance of the survival rate of children will lower the expected number
of children a family has and the likelihood of the family having children in
the first place (275-76).
Policy
implementers need to focus not only on improving the survival rate, but also on
the limiting the variance in family size over time. It does not help to lower
the average with out increasing the odds that families will have smaller
families. The feedback effect may rest in the
ability of policy to decrease mortality, which would then send a signal to
families that there is less of a risk associated with loosing a child. The results could end up being the
exact opposite of what is intended, where families decide they now are able to
have more children because the risk of death is far less of a concern. In order to combat the problem of
overpopulation effectively, policy needs to attack each front with the same
level of intensity. It will useless
if money and time are spent on policies that leave village and townships worse
off then before. Both the issues
of variance and of articulating an appropriate signal for family size need to
be aggressively understood before any solution to the population crisis in the
developing world can be revealed (277).