Topic Area: Fertility Control
Geographic Area: China
Focal Question: Does Government Enforcement of Fertility
Control Promote Sustainability?
Sources:
(1) Carol A. Scotese and Ping Wang, "Can Government
Enforcement Permanently Alter Fertility? The Case of China",
Economic Inquiry, October 1995, p 552-569.
Reviewer: Caitlin P. Lane, Colby College '96
Review:
In developing countries, per capita output growth is often slowed by
high birth rates. Traditional values, ignorance of birth control
technology, and labor intensive farming all play a role. For this
reason, many developing countries experiencing high birth rates have
adopted population control policies. This case analyzes the impacts
of control policies used in China. The results show that "only
preference shifts, involving education, health care and the
employment and social status of women, can generate a statistically
significant long-run decline in fertility growth. However, the
government's enforcement power can explain some short-run movements
in fertility". This case is interesting, as due to the strong
influence of the communist party, the government can easily regulate
an individual's life, including control over housing, employment and
salaries.
The People's Republic of China is the only country to use quotas on
child bearing decisions. In 1970, the government issued three
reproductive norms: late marriage, longer spacing between births and
fewer children. Men were encouraged to marry no earlier than 28 yrs
old (25 yrs in rural areas) and women no earlier than 25 yrs old (23
yrs in rural areas). After the first child, couples were encouraged
to allow four years between any subsequent births. The fewer children
norm suggested two children for urban families and three for rural
ones. In 1979, authorities limited households to only one child.
This study uses economic theory and econometrics to assess the main
sources of fertility fluctuations in China. It focuses on the
relationship between government enforcement of population control
policies and fertility outcomes. It allows the fertility rate to be
affected by: 1)household preferences, including alterations in taste
as well as in education, health care and the changing role of women,
and 2) production technology, which mostly captures changes in
agricultural output or income.
Since one cannot directly measure the Chinese government's ability to
enforce its birth-planning guidelines, the growth rate of the ratio
of government administration expenditures to total government
expenditures is used. The former includes spending on the armed
police, public security, prosecutorial agencies, and the justice
system. The latter includes all government expenditures. Fertility is
measured by the total fertility rate and aggregate output by total
grain production. All data are observed annually and the estimation
period covers the years 1952 to 1987.
Scotese and Wang use a neoclassical model to motivate their empirical
work. The usefulness of the model depends on its ability to
approximate family decision making under government constraints. The
family decisions refer to consumption and fertility decisions, while
the constraints refer to quotas and national birth planning
guidelines. A representative household will determine the number of
children to bear. Raising children is costly in three respects: 1)
given the output level, an increase in family size lowers per capita
capital and output; 2) increasing time costs must be paid out of
leisure time; and 3) it is costly to violate national birth-planning
guidelines.
Fines are levied according to how many children beyond the national
guideline a couple bears. The payments are often taken out of both
parents' incomes and continue until the child is fourteen to sixteen
years of age. Rural families who violate the guidelines may also
receive the least productive agricultural lots and be limited in
their access to "private" markets where excess products can be sold
at a favorable price. In this model, the typical rural household is
assumed to choose consumption, leisure, fertility, and capital
accumulation to maximize lifetime utility.
Periods of increasing enforcement in China occurred during 1958-61,
1967-67, 1970-76, and 1978-83. During these periods, the two programs
mentioned earlier were initiated. The earlier campaign promoted the
concept of marrying and having children later, waiting longer between
births, and bearing fewer children. The other program, beginning in
1979, sought to limit fertility to one child per couple. Results show
that the program was initially successful; however, as enforcement
ability decreased, fertility growth failed to decline further in
response to this government effort.
The study identifies a shock to government enforcement power, a
technological shock to aggregate (agricultural) output, and a
fertility preference shock. A shock is characterized by any
unexpected changes occuring. Fertility preferences will change as a
result of the development process for a number of reasons. A decrease
in infant mortality may lead households to have fewer births for any
given number of desired offspring. As opportunities for women in the
workforce increase, the opportunity costs of bearing children rises.
Also, an increase in education may lower the number of desired
children due to higher valued alternative uses of time. Finally, as
health systems develop, people become better informed on the use of
contraception and it becomes more widely available at a lower
cost.
Government power shocks (significant unexpected changes in government
leadership) had significant negative impacts on fertility growth
during 1956, 1959-61, 1967-68, 1971-72, and 1979-80, and significant
positive impacts during 1962 and 1969. The periods of negative
fertility growth correspond to the initiation of campaigns to promote
birth planning and times of unusual political control (The Great Leap
Forward 1959-62 and the Cultural Revolution 1967-68). The positive
fertility growth numbers reflect the return to political stability
after the political campaigns and before the birth-planning campaigns
were strongly reactivated.
Output shocks (regarding agricultural production) had significant
negative impacts on fertility growth during 1958-60 and 1969 and
significant positive impacts during 1962-63 and 1978-79. Declines in
fertility during the two periods corresponded to an agricultural
crisis and an output decline due to the Cultural Revolution. The
positive impact of output on fertility growth in the early 1960's was
a result of a revival in agricultural production and success, while
the effect in the late 1970's reflects the influence of economic
reform.
Preference shocks (changes in individual fertility preferences) had
significant negative impacts during 1973-78 and 1982-83 and
significant positive impacts during 1963, 1968, 1980 and 1986-87. One
explanation for this is that the fertility decline of the 1970's
began with a governmental thrust in 1971 and 1972, but preferences
became more important in subsequent years. The peaks correspond to
the institution and repeal of the late marriage law and the
introduction of the responsibility system to agricultural production.
The responsibility system creates an incentive to have more
children.
The study finds that a lower fertility rate is a result of an adverse
shock to agricultural output and a preference shift away from
fertility. Government enforcement appears to induce only short term
decreases. The empirical evidence suggests that only shocks to
preferences (rather than government power) have induced long
fertility cycles in China. The historical decompositions show that
the sustained fall in fertility experienced by China in the 1970's is
primarily explained by preference shifts. The results suggest that
population control is not sufficient to promote economic development
or sustainability without permanent shifts in individual
preferences.